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AUGUST 19,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:27 P.M. ET:

HIS AND HERS, HOW LOVELY – It turns out that President Obama and Michelle Obama took separate government jets to Martha's Vineyard just hours apart to begin their 1,207th vacation since the president was sworn in.  You would think there'd be more sensitivity to the appearances, to the extra costs involved, but this administration shows utter contempt for the very people it claims to represent.  The liberals used to complain about "the imperial presidency."  Well, they've created one.  God save the king, and queen, and Jeeves will fetch their aircraft.

A GENTLE SLAP – Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi, former Republican national chairman and a man who may know more about national politics than anyone around, has delivered a gentle slap on the wrist to his friend, Rick Perry.  After saying that southern conservatives are going to be "nitpicked" by the liberal media over everything they say, Barbour nonetheless gently derided Perry for some of Perry's loose-cannon language this week, especially Perry's description of possible moves by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as "treasonous."  Barbour said, "I think Rick Perry has to get prepared for the fact that he's gonna be nitpicked by the liberal media elite for everything he says and that he has to be very careful because everything that he says that can be taken out of context, will be taken out of context."  Barbour said he would not have used Perry's language.  Governor Perry, that's good advice from a good man.

THE POOR TASTE AWARD – I hate to give it to a conservative, but State Senator Frank Antenori of Tucson has expressed interest in running for the Congressional seat now held by Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who was horrendously wounded in a shooting in Tucson earlier this year.  I wish he'd just availed himself of the Constitutional right to shut up.  Gabrielle Giffords, a traditional pro-defense Democrat married to a recently retired Navy officer and astronaut, has become a revered figure, respected for her service and the medical fight she's been waging.   It appears that she'll be well enough to run again.  Unless her district is heavily gerrymandered, she has no chance of losing.  What should Republicans do?  Just endorse her and send her on her way.  It would be a respected, appreciated gesture, and she might even feel a connection to both parties.  Many of her instincts, after all, like passionate support for the Second Amendment, are conservative.  Joint endorsements are not unknown.  There's a place in politics for some class.

SARAH'S KNACK – Whatever anyone thinks of Sarah Palin, she has an unparalleled knack for attracting attention and publicity.  There's now renewed buzz that she's soon going to announce her candidacy for president.  She's dropped a number of hints in recent days, and Karl Rove said on Fox today that her schedule after Labor Day looks suspiciously like a candidate's.  Will she make a difference if she gets in?  Hard to say.  She's lost substantial popularity within the Republican Party, and I've long felt that her resignation from the Alaska governorship was fatal.  But she's going to attract massive news coverage, and inevitably it will be said that she was just jealous of Michele Bachmann.  I don't think one can easily predict what will happen if she gets in, but she'll certainly sell more books.  The key, if she does take the plunge, will be for her to surprise us by coming thoroughly briefed and prepared to discuss any issue in detail.

August 19, 2011       Permalink

OUR FADING INFLUENCE – AT 9:29 A.M. ET:   Russia is once again thumbing its nose at the United States, making it very clear that Barack Obama's "reset" of relations with Moscow has been a colossal failure, like most of the rest of his foreign policy.  Yesterday the Obama administration called for Syrian dictator Assad to go.  Russia's answer came today:

(CNN) -- Russia opposes U.S. and European leaders' calls for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to resign, Interfax news agency reported Friday, saying that the leader should get more time to implement reforms.
The move by Russia counters efforts by leaders ratcheting up international pressure against a regime criticized for its brutal crackdown against protesters calling for reforms and the ouster of al-Assad.

"We do not support such calls, and we think that President al-Assad should be given time today to implement all of the declared reform processes," a Russian Foreign Ministry official told the nation's Interfax news agency.
The White House has previously said al-Assad had "lost legitimacy," but resisted calling explicitly for his ouster until now.

"The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way," President Barack Obama said in a statement Thursday. "We have consistently said that President Assad must lead a democratic transition or get out of the way. He has not led. For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside." 

Assad has not yet called his travel agent.  Indeed, today, a day after the dictator said that the crackdown against dissenters was over, more were killed as Syrians poured into the streets, calling for an end to the regime.

Russia has once again proved unhelpful.  In fact, I can't recall when it's ever been helpful. It's becoming increasingly undemocratic, and it's building its military once more, unveiling its first stealth fighter just this week.  And yet, you would never know it from the pearly words coming from the Obamans.  You put the most left-wing member of the Senate in the White House, you get what's expected.

August 19, 2011       Permalink 

OBAMA'S POLITICAL WOES – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:   Based on poll results, Obama is in serious trouble, at least right now.  Michael Gerson, at WaPo, gives a good analysis of the president's position, and his potential:

To be safe, a president needs a Gallup job approval of 50 percent or better on Election Day. George W. Bush narrowly won reelection in 2004 with a 48 percent Gallup approval, mainly because his voters were more motivated than John Kerry’s. After a long, slow slide, Obama’s approval hovers in the low 40s. He starts with ground to make up.

Lacking the momentum of an economic recovery, the Obama campaign is signaling three elements of a political recovery strategy.

First — 32 months after his inauguration, 28 months after the unemployment rate first surged past 9 percent — Obama will propose a “very specific” jobs package. In September. Following a well-deserved vacation.

And...

The second element of Obama’s recovery strategy is to distance himself from a divided, dysfunctional, unpopular Congress. This, of course, is not fully consistent with element one — getting legislative achievements out of an institution you are savaging...A president cannot distance himself from a process he is supposed to lead and failed to lead effectively.

And...

Third, the Obama camp has previewed a campaign of personal attacks against its Republican opponent, whoever it happens to be. Obama advisers and Democratic strategists have been quoted by Politico calling Mitt Romney “weird,” possessing an “innate phoniness,” which will allow Democrats to “kill” his campaign. David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist, has distanced himself from these comments. But such hardball is consistent with the way Obama has treated Speaker John Boehner (going to his home state of Ohio in 2010 to attack him directly) and Rep. Paul Ryan (inviting Ryan to a budget speech in which Obama trashed him as an enemy of children with Down syndrome).

And...

Obama’s cause is far from hopeless. His support has declined but not collapsed. A weak Republican opponent would help. And this emerging strategy — proposing symbolic measures on jobs, bashing an unpopular Congress and discrediting rivals — may be Obama’s only option. A campaign taking credit for positive economic accomplishments would be nearly silent...

...And this strategy must be a comedown for at least some of the idealists who elected Obama in the first place. Following expectations few presidents have raised as high, Obama has transformed into the most typical of politicians. There is little distinctive, elevated or inspirational about his message or his tactics. And this adds an unwanted accomplishment: the further political disillusionment of a nation.

COMMENT:  Very good analysis.  I would add, though, that Obama still has the media on his side, and that may be decisive in a close election.   Given a choice between a failed Obama and a potentially successful Republican, the choice of most journalists will be to stick with the man who makes them culturally happy. 

The election is still more than a year away.  The whole world can be different by then.  This will be a long and bitter fight.  I don't see national unity as an outcome.

August 19, 2011       Permalink

YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK – AT 8:38 A.M. ET:  Remember when we were thrilled by the name NASA?  Remember flights to the moon?  Remember "A-OK?"  Now look at this: 

It may not rank as the most compelling reason to curb greenhouse gases, but reducing our emissions might just save humanity from a pre-emptive alien attack, scientists claim.

Watching from afar, extraterrestrial beings might view changes in Earth's atmosphere as symptomatic of a civilisation growing out of control – and take drastic action to keep us from becoming a more serious threat, the researchers explain.

This highly speculative scenario is one of several described by a Nasa-affiliated scientist and colleagues at Pennsylvania State University that, while considered unlikely, they say could play out were humans and alien life to make contact at some point in the future.

Shawn Domagal-Goldman of Nasa's Planetary Science Division and his colleagues compiled a list of plausible outcomes that could unfold in the aftermath of a close encounter, to help humanity "prepare for actual contact".

COMMENT:  I plan to be out of town when it happens.  Fill me in.

August 19, 2011      Permalink

WELCOME TO THE RECOVERY – AT 8:26 A.M. ET:  Analysts are expecting another bad day on Wall Street:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were headed for another day of losses Friday, as worries of a global slowdown and Europe's debt crisis sparked a second sell-off in global markets.

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures fell between 1.5% and 2% ahead of the opening bell. Stock futures indicate the possible direction of the markets when they open at 9:30 a.m. ET.

COMMENT:  But look, you never know.  The stock market isn't the real economy.  It's New York's upscale version of Las Vegas.   I'm sure you've seen these "experts" on TV who glance back at a numbers board and say grimly to viewers, "The Dow took a tumble today on news that Hewlett-Packard found a mouse in the basement."  The next day the same guy is back with, "The Dow smiled today on news that Hewlett-Packard sold a printer to a teacher in Des Moines."  And this is taken seriously by "investuhs." 

It's a grand game, but I find it hard to believe that real economic conditions change enough in one day for the market to soar 400 points, then drop 400 points.  The board game, Monopoly, is more rational.  Just pass GO and collect two hundred bucks.  Sounds good to me.

August 19, 2011     Permalink 

AUGUST 18,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:46 P.M. ET:

SICKENING – London's Daily Mail reports that jihadists are being encouraged to bomb the funerals of American military personnel killed in Iraq and Afghanistan.  They're being instructed online to hide bombs under fake military uniforms to get into the funerals, and to target military and civilian leaders, like governors.  The jihadists are told that funerals are largely unprotected, which isn't true.  They're often guarded by police and volunteers, but I would imagine that someone in uniform could get close enough to do some real harm.  Real sweet, isn't it?

BLUNDER BY BACHMANN? – One challenge faced by Michele Bachmann is to prove she isn't just a regional candidate.  She won the Iowa straw poll, but she was born in Iowa, and represents a Congressional district in neighboring Minnesota.   She isn't going to be helped by her decision not to participate in the Florida Presidency 5 Straw Poll in September.  Florida is a major state, and a swing state.  There will be a nationally televised debate from Florida just days before the poll, and Bachmann will be debating.  It's baffling to GOP officials in Florida that she'll come for the debate, but won't compete in the poll.  No one quoted by the press thinks this is a smart move, and it isn't.

OH, RICK! – I'm accused by readers of being rough on GOP presidential candidates, and I am.  I want to win next year, not chalk up a "moral victory."  There's nothing so immoral as a "moral victory."  It means that you've let down the people, and the ideas, that you claim to represent.  Moral victories are for political impostors.  And so I'm disappointed again by another gaffe by Rick Perry, whose first week on the stump has been somewhat disappointing.  Today he, for some bizarre reason, got into a discussion in New Hampshire about creationism versus Darwin.  Oh, come on, Rick.  This is not for a presidential candidate.  You can simply refuse to take the bait and say that you don't think it appropriate to discuss religious issues.  Creationism isn't exactly a compelling issue in New Hampshire.  Perry also said that creationism is taught in Texas schools, which, according to late news reports, isn't so.  Perry will get his sea legs, and get used to the national platform, but he's got to do it before the image of a strictly local politician gets fixed in the minds of the media, and, through the media, the public.

FINALLY – While Obama enjoyed Martha's Vineyard, his administration finally got around today to calling on Syrian President Assad to step down.  Some other countries followed, as did the European Union.  It's about time, but whether this new ringing declaration will have any effect on the Syrian dictator, who has murdered about 2,000 of his countrymen in recent months, is difficult to predict.  So far the thug isn't budging, and he's getting support from his buddies in Iran.  Sadly, he's also getting support from the government of Iraq, which wouldn't have existed had we not deposed Saddam Hussein.  I'm afraid Iraq is slipping steadily into the Iranian orbit, demonstrating once again the retrograde nature of too much of the Arab world.

August 18, 2011     Permalink 

AS THE PRESIDENT TAKES A VACATION – AT 8:51 A.M. ET:  A new jobs report is not encouraging.  From Bloomberg:

More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, signaling the labor market is struggling two years into the economic recovery.

Jobless claims climbed by 9,000 to 408,000 in the week ended Aug. 13, the highest in a month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a rise in claims to 400,000, according to the median forecast. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls rose, while those receiving extended payments fell.

Companies like Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK) are paring staff, one reason consumers are limiting their spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Unemployment at 9.1 percent helps explain why Federal Reserve policy makers last week pledged to hold interest rates at a record low until at least mid-2013 to spur growth.

COMMENT:  And it appears the attempt at a stock market rally has also fizzled, after a bad day on the European markets.  We are in the soup.  The president doesn't know how to get us out of the soup, and prefers hamburgers anyway.

The last two weeks of August are, traditionally, the slowest news period of the year, but not this year, in part because of the economy.  Watch, though, as the political season roars to life after Labor Day.  Major combat ahead. 

August 18, 2011       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 8:40 A.M. ET: 

SHANGHAI, Aug. 17 (Xinhua) -- The half-brother of U.S. President Barack Obama attended a book fair in Shanghai Wednesday to promote his semi-autobiographical novel "Nairobi to Shenzhen" and to autograph its Chinese edition for the readers.  Mark Obama Ndesandjo's novel, written in diary form, is based on his own experiences: born in Kenya, working in the United States and moving to Asia after his American dream was smashed by 9/11.  Ndesandjo moved to Shenzhen, a boomtown in south China's Guangdong Province just across the border from Hong Kong, in 2001. He has taught English and been heavily involved in charity work, including giving free piano lessons to orphans.

First, I didn't know they had book fairs in China.  I wonder what they allow.  Second, I'd never heard of this particular half-brother.  Third, I think I'll wait for the movie.

ARE GADAFFI'S DAYS NUMBERED? – AT 8:04 A.M. ET:  NATO's slow-motion military campaign in Libya has been widely criticized – and we've joined in here – and we're still not sure exactly who the rebels are, but there is clear military movement in the country, and it's toward the rebel side.

TRIPOLI, Libya (AP) — Five loud explosions have shaken the Libyan capital's city center.

The thunderous blasts on Thursday afternoon could be felt at a hotel where foreign journalists stay in Tripoli.

NATO jets were heard minutes after the blasts exploded. It wasn't immediately clear what was hit or if there were civilian casualties.

NATO has been bombarding military targets in Libya since a no-fly zone was instituted in March.

Rebel fighters are closing in on the capital from the west and the south, while NATO controls the seas off the north of Tripoli.

Hundreds of miles away from Tripoli, the opposition controls of most of eastern Libya, and has a transitional leadership council in the rebel de facto capital of Benghazi.

COMMENT:  There's been a great deal of reporting in the last few days pointing to major advances by the rebels, and boastful predictions by some rebel leaders that Gadaffi will be gone by the end of August.  Obviously, that can't be guaranteed, but for the first time the rebel claims are being taken seriously. 

If it does happen, you may be sure that President Obama will issue an appropriate statement from his vacation hideaway in Cape Cod, while holding an ice cream cone in one hand.

At the same time, Syrian President Assad, under increasing international pressure, including pressure from the Arab League, claims that the clampdown against his own people has been stopped.  We'll see about that tomorrow, the traditional day for protests in the Muslim world.  If the crackdown is over, it doesn't in any way guarantee reforms in Syria, but it could buy a lease on life for Assad, a very bad outcome.

August 18, 2011       Permalink

OH, THIS IS WEIRD – AT 7:43 A.M. ET:  Among other problems the president faces, include the perception that the African-American community is disillusioned with him.  He now has received a tongue-lashing from the one and only Maxine Waters, ethically challenged congresswoman from California, who sounds ominous notes.  From the Washington Examiner:

During a sometimes-raucous session of what's being called the "For the People" Jobs Initiative tour, a key member of the Congressional Black Caucus told an audience in Detroit Tuesday that the CBC doesn't put pressure on President Obama because he is loved by black voters. But at the same time, Rep. Maxine Waters said, members of the CBC are becoming increasingly tired and frustrated by Obama's performance on the issue of jobs. Even as she expressed support for the president, Waters virtually invited the crowd to "unleash us" to pressure Obama for action.

"We don't put pressure on the president," Waters told the audience at Wayne County Community College. "Let me tell you why. We don't put pressure on the president because ya'll love the president. You love the president. You're very proud to have a black man -- first time in the history of the United States of America. If we go after the president too hard, you're going after us."

Yeah.  This is what happens when ethnicity becomes the only issue.  And get this one:

As she discussed her dilemma -- frustrated with the president but hesitant to criticize him lest black supporters turn on her -- Waters asked the crowd for its permission to have a "conversation" with the president. "When you tell us it's alright and you unleash us and you tell us you're ready for us to have this conversation, we're ready to have the conversation," she said. Some members of the crowd immediately voiced their approval.

COMMENT:  Unleash her?  You  mean, the way conservatives in the 1950s wanted to unleash Chiang Kai-shek? 

This is really bizarre stuff.  Pure ethnic politics.  And now maybe Americans will realize the limits of that kind of appeal.  Even Maxine Waters, a race woman if there ever was one, may start to understand.

August 18, 2011        Permalink

APPEARANCES, GENTLEMEN, APPEARANCES – AT 7:07 A.M. ET:  Standard & Poor's recently downgraded the credit rating of the United States for the first time in our history.  Now S&P is under investigation by the Justice Department.  From The New York Times:

The Justice Department is investigating whether the nation’s largest credit ratings agency, Standard & Poor’s, improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis, according to two people interviewed by the government and another briefed on such interviews.

The investigation began before Standard & Poor’s cut the United States’ AAA credit rating this month, but it is likely to add fuel to the political firestorm that has surrounded that action. Lawmakers and some administration officials have since questioned the agency’s secretive process, its credibility and the competence of its analysts, claiming to have found an error in its debt calculations.

COMMENT:  No matter how you spin this, it leaves one with a sour taste.  This is the kind of story you usually read in a dictatorship, or in a city dominated by a boss-run political machine. 

The investigation may be entirely proper, indeed possibly overdue.  But the appearances are awful.  This simply looks like retaliation, the political equivalent of a gangland hit.   A kind of financial St. Valentine's Day massacre.

Oh, didn't the St. Valentine's Day massacre take place in Chicago?  And didn't the president come from..?  And didn't his chief of staff come from..?  And his political advisers?  And his wife? 

Oh, I'm dreaming.  But, you know, you hang around, you learn.

This calls for more reporting.  Frankly, I hope the probe is legit, as there are many proper questions about the rating of the mortage market in the time leading up to the mess of 2008.  But the appearances are still rotten.

August 18, 2011     Permalink